【Mingli lecture 2022, Issue 7】

Time: January 13, 2022 (Thursday) 14:30-16:00

Venue: Conference Room 317, Main Building

Tencent conference: 707 429 292 simultaneous live broadcast

Abstract: By introducing the input-output relationship between the real estate industry and other industries into the model, this paper analyzes the inverted U-shaped relationship between housing prices and output levels and its impact on real estate regulation. The research of this paper finds that the input-output relationship introduces the intermediate demand channel and its multiplier effect into the model, which not only amplifies the impact of shocks on economic fluctuations, but also leads to an inversion between housing prices and output levels in a steady state. U-shaped nonlinear relationship, that is, when housing prices are low, housing price increases can drive economic growth; however, when housing prices are too high, housing price increases will inhibit economic growth. The results of welfare analysis show that the choice of real estate regulation policy depends on the steady-state house price level—when steady-state house prices are at a moderate level, monetary policy should not target expected house prices, and when steady-state house prices are too low or too high, monetary policy should. Keep an eye on expected house prices. The calculation results of this paper show that my country's housing prices have exceeded the level of housing prices corresponding to the apex of the inverted U-shaped curve, so it is necessary to resolutely curb the further rise of housing prices; at the same time, monetary policy should also respond appropriately to housing price fluctuations.

Brief introduction: Hou Chengqi is a professor and doctoral supervisor of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Beijing Institute of Technology. The main research direction is macro-financial theory and policy, and has conducted systematic and in-depth research in the fields of inflation and core inflation, real estate market and economic and financial stability, monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. He presided over 1 major project of the National Social Science Fund and 4 projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The research results were mainly published in high-level academic journals such as "Economic Research", "Economics (Quarterly)", "Financial Research" and "World Economy" In journals, he has been recommended as a cover paper and a key paper for many times, and won the Outstanding Paper Award of the China Young Economist Forum and the Outstanding Paper of the Year in "Financial Research".

(Organizer: Department of International Trade and Finance, Research and Academic Exchange Center)